The Housing Loan Lending Rates are set by the Reserve Bank of Australia and published monthly within five business days after month end.

Australian interest rates ramped up from 6% in 1970 to a peak 17% in 1990 before dropping sharply back down to 10% in 1992.

Interest rates remained reasonably volatile with some sharp spikes and sudden drops, but overall trended down to 5% in 2020, before spiking back over 8% in 2023.

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Calculating the 25th and 75th percentile over a multi year time horizon helps smooth out the anomolies and visualize the lower and upper long term trends.

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Over the last 5 years the median (50th percetile) interest rate is 7.52%; The mean (average) interest rate is 6.77%.

Over the last 30 years the median (50th percetile) interest rate is 6.74%; The mean (average) interest rate is 6.83%.

Years 25th percentile 50th percentile 75th percentile mean
1 8.52 8.77 8.77 8.64
5 4.52 7.52 8.66 6.77
10 4.80 5.28 7.52 5.99
20 5.28 6.22 7.79 6.56
30 5.76 6.74 7.79 6.83

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The chart shows interst rates have trended down from 7% to below 5% over the last 20 years.

ℹ The data suggests reasonable confidence using baseline interest rates around 6% with reasonable uncertainty or risk that interest rates could peak higher.